Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . No place like 'Nam. The crew puts Georgia's new voting laws in context and discusses the challenges facing the Biden administration on immigration policy in the short and long term. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. r/fivethirtyeight. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. 0:00:00 Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. They determine whether we live in a free or repres david senak now. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.Website: http:. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. By our estimates, the Democrat is on track to win by 45 points, compared to 30 points in '22 and 36 points in '20. twitter. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? 266, the . The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. 450 episodes. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. This is the final episode. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. Subscribe and listen Also available wherever you listen to podcasts Google Stitcher iHeartRadio Castbox TuneIn Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. . In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. Listen at itun.es/i67M5bV. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. In the main event, former light The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22 The team debates if Americans. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. Then the content will get automatically transcribed. Saturday, February 25, 2023. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. robert kraft granddaughter. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. 10 Wednesday AM Reads. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. No products in the cart. What does it take to make democracy work? The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. Galen speaks with him. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. Dive in and Share your insights! Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. All. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." It's a big election week for liberal democracies. This is the first episode. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. send a tweet. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations? Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. FiveThirtyEight Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. The Negro League Stars That MLB Kept Out And Is Finally Recognizing. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022.